Understanding Our Prediction System

New to investing? No problem! This guide explains how we give you up-to-date information about BMNR when official reports can be weeks behind.

The Problem We Solve

Imagine you want to know how much your favorite company is worth today, but their official reports come out every few months. That's frustrating, right?

Here's what happens with BMNR:

Official shareholder reports: Come out quarterly (every 3 months)

Weekly treasury updates: Show new Bitcoin/ETH purchases and cash holdings

Stock price: Changes every second during market hours

So we have some current info (weekly updates + live stock price) but we're missing the key piece: how many shares exist today?

Without knowing current shares outstanding, we can't calculate important things like:

Current market cap (company value)

Price-to-NAV ratio (is the stock cheap or expensive?)

How much Bitcoin/ETH each share represents

Our Solution: Smart Predictions

Think of it like this: if you know someone bought groceries but don't know their exact bank balance, you can estimate it by tracking their spending and income.

We do something similar with BMNR:

What we know week-by-week:

How much ETH they bought

How much they paid for it

Their current cash and ETH holdings

The current stock price

What we can predict:

How much money they raised (to buy that ETH)

How many shares they probably sold (to raise that money)

Current total shares outstanding

Updated company valuation metrics

What Are Those Dots on Our Charts?

See those dots labeled "Last Verified" on our charts? They're super important:

Before the dot: Real, verified data from official reports

After the dot: Our predictions based on weekly updates

The dot itself: The last time we had official share count data

This way you always know what's confirmed versus what's estimated.

How We Make Our Predictions (The Simple Version)

Let's break down our method step by step:

Step 1: Start with the Last Known Facts

We find the most recent official report that told us exactly how many shares existed. This is our "anchor point" - our rock-solid starting place.

Step 2: Follow the Money Trail Week by Week

For each week since then, we track:

1. How much ETH did they buy?

New ETH = This week's total - Last week's total

2. How much did it cost?

ETH Cost = New ETH × Their average purchase price

3. Where did the money come from?

If their cash went down by less than what they spent, they must have raised money

Money Raised = (Cash decrease + ETH cost) - Previous cash

4. How many shares did they sell to raise that money?

New Shares = Money Raised ÷ Average stock price that week

5. What's the new total?

Total Shares = Previous total + New shares

Step 3: Calculate Today's Numbers

With our estimated current share count:

Market Cap = Current stock price × Estimated shares

Value per Share = (ETH value + Cash) ÷ Estimated shares

Price-to-NAV = Market cap ÷ Total asset value

A Real Example (With Made-Up Numbers)

Let's pretend we're tracking BMNR starting from August 1st, when they had exactly 50 million shares outstanding.

Week of August 8th:

BMNR's ETH holdings increased by 10,000 ETH

They paid an average of $2,500 per ETH

So they spent: 10,000 × $2,500 = $25 million on ETH

Their cash went from $30M to $20M (down $10M)

But they spent $25M on ETH, so they must have raised: $25M - $10M = $15M

BMNR stock averaged $35 that week

Shares sold to raise $15M: $15M ÷ $35 = ~429,000 shares

New total: 50M + 429K = 50.429M shares

We repeat this calculation for every week until today. Each week builds on the previous week's estimate.

Why Our Method Makes Sense

This approach works because:

1. We start with solid facts - official share counts from real reports

2. We track real money movements - actual ETH purchases and cash changes

3. We use market prices - real stock prices from when shares were likely sold

4. We update continuously - every week as new treasury data comes in

It's like being a financial detective, following the money trail to figure out what probably happened.

What This Means for You as an Investor

The Good News

You get current estimates instead of waiting months for official reports

You can track share dilution in real-time as it probably happens

You can see if BMNR stock is cheap or expensive based on today's likely numbers

Things to Keep in Mind

These are educated guesses, not official numbers

Stock prices bounce around, so our weekly averages aren't perfect

Unusual events (like big news) could throw off our estimates

The further from the anchor dot, the less certain our predictions become

How to Use This Info

Smart approach: Use our predictions to get a sense of current value, but remember they're estimates. When official reports come out, that's when you'll know for sure if we were close.

Not so smart: Treating our predictions as gospel truth and making big financial decisions based solely on them.

What You'll See on Our Dashboard

All our charts show the same story:

Solid lines: Real, verified historical data

Anchor dots: "Last verified" markers

Continuing lines: Our predictions from that point forward

Whether you're looking at market cap, shares outstanding, or ETH concentration, you'll see the same anchor dot date. This means all our current numbers are connected - they're all based on the same prediction starting point.

The Bottom Line

Think of our system like a weather forecast. Meteorologists use current conditions and historical patterns to predict if it'll rain tomorrow. We use current treasury data and market patterns to predict BMNR's current valuation.

Just like you'd check the weather forecast before planning a picnic (while knowing it might be wrong), you can use our predictions to get a sense of BMNR's current value while remembering they're educated estimates, not certainties.

The goal isn't to be perfect - it's to give you much better information than you'd have otherwise, updated in real-time as new data becomes available.

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Questions? This stuff can be confusing at first. If anything doesn't make sense, or if you want us to explain other parts of our analysis, just let us know!